The Future Through Dark Glasses
1. Pakistan is not our friend. At all. They are sure chewing up the ground hunting for Bin Laden ... but they were INSIDE Afghanistan as "advisors" to the Taliban and al Qaida until the "war" started going against the Afghans so early on. The ONLY reason the U.S. has not included Pakistan in the "Evil Axis" and put crosshairs on their butts is because they are nuclear. We think we have problems with unwashed militants NOW, try pissing off a third world nuclear power! If the U.S. could, they would LOVE to "pacify" this nation, but cannot even think about touching it, really. They pretend that Pakistan was just sort of "neutral" and have decided to jump on the anti-terror Love Train, but it's "spin" to keep Americans from realizing that we are sleeping with a nuclear enemy.
2. Iran is aching to become a new Pakistan. If they get nukes, they will never again fear American expansionism. The U.S. is the only super power left in the world and can do as they please ... except against nukes. The only defense against a nuclear-armed mini-power is to pave it before it uses its own nukes. Pakistan cannot reach the U.S. as the old U.S.S.R. and China can, but they can nuke our "interests" around them, and any forces we might try to send there to shove them around. BECAUSE Iran is so close to having nukes, and is so much farther along than Iraq ever was, and is agitating inside both Afghanistan AND Iraq even now ... Iran is likely to become the next victim of American anti-terror warfare. EXCEPT that ....
3. The war in Iraq has the U.S. stretched painfully thin. It's one thing to forget the lessons of a "war" 30 years ago, as in Vietnam, but to forget the lessons learned only a couple years ago is ridiculous. Except for capturing or killing America's "Frankenstein monster" UBL, the "war" in Afghanistan was a resounding and surprising success. Why? American Special Forces went in first and initiated the action. Later the regular Army and Marines were brought in to help mop up puddles here and there, and to police the place, but Special Forces went in and linked up with Afghani resistance groups and just waxed the asses of over half the Taliban and al Qaida forces in just a couple of months. In Iraq, the U.S. decided to "shock and awe" the enemy with such a huge number of cannon-fodder (traditional troops and equipment sent in such a great quantity that the enemy simply could not stand before it) and the result was slapping a small pool of water with a plank and making a buzzillion little splash-puddles all around. Iraq, therefore, is uncontrolled and damn near uncontrollable. BECAUSE of the cluster going on in Iraq, the U.S. is in no real position to do anything pre-emptive in Iran ... so Iran is likely to get nukes before America can stop them, as they sort of stopped Saddam.
4. If and when Iran gets nukes, America can pull its nekkid ass out of Africa in a hurry. All the U.S.-hating nations that are really, legitimately terrified of U.S. domination will kiss any Iranian ass they can find to become allies and gain at least second-hand nuclear protection. Iran MIGHT sell nuke-tech to high-bidding allies, but will more likely simply form alliances and if the U.S. threatens anything like what they have done in Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran will wave a nuclear finger and say, "No touchee, Uncle Sam, or we clobber your ignorant, anti-Islamic ass." Iran would suddenly rule all of the Islamic nations, possibly bringing them under a theocratic thumb that will make the U.S. sweat blood.
5. North Korea is a teeter-totter. It is miserably impoverished even at the central government level, but the Norkies are tough, quietly intelligent folk with a serious jones to stop being a third world laughing stock. If they manage to get delivery-capability of their nukes, the U.S. will have to pull out of Japan, South Korea, etc., and in a big damn hurry. America will probably arm Japan (and South Korea) with nukes as they bail, and that will lead to a miniature Asian Cold War ... and one that might not end so softly as did the one between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Frankly, little-dog countries with so little to lose and so much to gain, will be more inclined to actually USE nukes ... unless they find that the threat of using nukes can gain them appeasement from the bigger powers. Like when some pip-squeak bank robber grabs a bimbo hostage when surrounded by cops and must be allowed to escape or he caps the dame.
6. American intelligence and foreign policy since Reagan has been so disarmed by the so-called end of the Cold War (the media declared it and the politicians agreed publicly with them in order to appear to have "won" something) that it's possible, and even likely, that "rogue nations" like Iran and North Korea will become nuclear powers, and will quickly cancer-ize their entire regions. China would be forced to adopt the Norkies as "cousins," or, about as bad, to strike first and just pre-empt them into a radioactive fog. Same with India and the Pakistanis. Pakistan is predominantly Muslim ... India Hindu. Never the twain shall meet. If Iran becomes the second "known" nuclear Muslim power, anyone else within the delivery range of Islamic nukes will be in genuine, immediate danger, and MAY decide to shoot first and apologize later.
7. The U.S. has already proven that, in order to "save the many" they are willing to nuke the more in Hiroshima and in Nagasaki. If intelligence and counter-intelligence and diplomacy don't stop third worlders from gaining nuke-tech, the U.S. may feel "forced" to blast the new-nukers ... and at least piss off the other nuke powers, if not provoke some of them to attack America. The `Stans are all so close to Russia they cannot be happy about radioactive waste and fall-out near them. Same with China, which can STILL irradiate Americans from far, far away.
How does any of this relate to you? You vote. You pay taxes. You swallow media baby-food, or don't. You join protests that make no difference, or you join protests that matter. The nuclear genie is out of the bottle, so anti-nuke whining is just pathetic posturing. There is no going back on nukes. Going forward is the only option, but into a radioactive twilight or "secure" world is the question.
Sadly, the only way I can see the world becoming "secure" is a one-world government. The U.N. will never be it. The U.N. is institutionally sterile and does not have the balls or teeth to get the job done. No major player will allow the U.N. to become strong enough to dictate to them as the U.S. dictates to most of the rest of the world. Something akin to a nuclear N.A.T.O. will have to be born, but not just as a hold-over military command from Dubya-Dubya-Too. It will have to physically impose police-state authority over every nation on earth (including the founding powers) in order to stop nationalistic, theocratic or terroristic development and use of nukes. Of course, the entire world might convert to Islam, or Judaeism, or Christianity ... but pigs might fly from a few butts before THAT happens.
Another, brighter possibility, is that the world, largely using the Internet, becomes educated and wealthy enough that the huge majority will be too happy to allow ignorant, dark little bastards to piss in the punch bowl. If enough nations can find ways (and be helped to find ways) to make more money and food and to interact and deal with more and more foreign customers/suppliers, then anyone threatening to rock the boat will be slapped down by the locals wherever they are found. I hope for and will "lobby" for this alternative, but I have a hard time imagining that it will really happen.
After all, it takes time, thought, sacrifice of comfort and long-term attention span to make such a thing possible. It is just so much easier to allow the States to police the planet with spies and bugs and armed goons and restrictive laws. And humans are a lazy, lazy species....
2. Iran is aching to become a new Pakistan. If they get nukes, they will never again fear American expansionism. The U.S. is the only super power left in the world and can do as they please ... except against nukes. The only defense against a nuclear-armed mini-power is to pave it before it uses its own nukes. Pakistan cannot reach the U.S. as the old U.S.S.R. and China can, but they can nuke our "interests" around them, and any forces we might try to send there to shove them around. BECAUSE Iran is so close to having nukes, and is so much farther along than Iraq ever was, and is agitating inside both Afghanistan AND Iraq even now ... Iran is likely to become the next victim of American anti-terror warfare. EXCEPT that ....
3. The war in Iraq has the U.S. stretched painfully thin. It's one thing to forget the lessons of a "war" 30 years ago, as in Vietnam, but to forget the lessons learned only a couple years ago is ridiculous. Except for capturing or killing America's "Frankenstein monster" UBL, the "war" in Afghanistan was a resounding and surprising success. Why? American Special Forces went in first and initiated the action. Later the regular Army and Marines were brought in to help mop up puddles here and there, and to police the place, but Special Forces went in and linked up with Afghani resistance groups and just waxed the asses of over half the Taliban and al Qaida forces in just a couple of months. In Iraq, the U.S. decided to "shock and awe" the enemy with such a huge number of cannon-fodder (traditional troops and equipment sent in such a great quantity that the enemy simply could not stand before it) and the result was slapping a small pool of water with a plank and making a buzzillion little splash-puddles all around. Iraq, therefore, is uncontrolled and damn near uncontrollable. BECAUSE of the cluster going on in Iraq, the U.S. is in no real position to do anything pre-emptive in Iran ... so Iran is likely to get nukes before America can stop them, as they sort of stopped Saddam.
4. If and when Iran gets nukes, America can pull its nekkid ass out of Africa in a hurry. All the U.S.-hating nations that are really, legitimately terrified of U.S. domination will kiss any Iranian ass they can find to become allies and gain at least second-hand nuclear protection. Iran MIGHT sell nuke-tech to high-bidding allies, but will more likely simply form alliances and if the U.S. threatens anything like what they have done in Afghanistan and Iraq, Iran will wave a nuclear finger and say, "No touchee, Uncle Sam, or we clobber your ignorant, anti-Islamic ass." Iran would suddenly rule all of the Islamic nations, possibly bringing them under a theocratic thumb that will make the U.S. sweat blood.
5. North Korea is a teeter-totter. It is miserably impoverished even at the central government level, but the Norkies are tough, quietly intelligent folk with a serious jones to stop being a third world laughing stock. If they manage to get delivery-capability of their nukes, the U.S. will have to pull out of Japan, South Korea, etc., and in a big damn hurry. America will probably arm Japan (and South Korea) with nukes as they bail, and that will lead to a miniature Asian Cold War ... and one that might not end so softly as did the one between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Frankly, little-dog countries with so little to lose and so much to gain, will be more inclined to actually USE nukes ... unless they find that the threat of using nukes can gain them appeasement from the bigger powers. Like when some pip-squeak bank robber grabs a bimbo hostage when surrounded by cops and must be allowed to escape or he caps the dame.
6. American intelligence and foreign policy since Reagan has been so disarmed by the so-called end of the Cold War (the media declared it and the politicians agreed publicly with them in order to appear to have "won" something) that it's possible, and even likely, that "rogue nations" like Iran and North Korea will become nuclear powers, and will quickly cancer-ize their entire regions. China would be forced to adopt the Norkies as "cousins," or, about as bad, to strike first and just pre-empt them into a radioactive fog. Same with India and the Pakistanis. Pakistan is predominantly Muslim ... India Hindu. Never the twain shall meet. If Iran becomes the second "known" nuclear Muslim power, anyone else within the delivery range of Islamic nukes will be in genuine, immediate danger, and MAY decide to shoot first and apologize later.
7. The U.S. has already proven that, in order to "save the many" they are willing to nuke the more in Hiroshima and in Nagasaki. If intelligence and counter-intelligence and diplomacy don't stop third worlders from gaining nuke-tech, the U.S. may feel "forced" to blast the new-nukers ... and at least piss off the other nuke powers, if not provoke some of them to attack America. The `Stans are all so close to Russia they cannot be happy about radioactive waste and fall-out near them. Same with China, which can STILL irradiate Americans from far, far away.
How does any of this relate to you? You vote. You pay taxes. You swallow media baby-food, or don't. You join protests that make no difference, or you join protests that matter. The nuclear genie is out of the bottle, so anti-nuke whining is just pathetic posturing. There is no going back on nukes. Going forward is the only option, but into a radioactive twilight or "secure" world is the question.
Sadly, the only way I can see the world becoming "secure" is a one-world government. The U.N. will never be it. The U.N. is institutionally sterile and does not have the balls or teeth to get the job done. No major player will allow the U.N. to become strong enough to dictate to them as the U.S. dictates to most of the rest of the world. Something akin to a nuclear N.A.T.O. will have to be born, but not just as a hold-over military command from Dubya-Dubya-Too. It will have to physically impose police-state authority over every nation on earth (including the founding powers) in order to stop nationalistic, theocratic or terroristic development and use of nukes. Of course, the entire world might convert to Islam, or Judaeism, or Christianity ... but pigs might fly from a few butts before THAT happens.
Another, brighter possibility, is that the world, largely using the Internet, becomes educated and wealthy enough that the huge majority will be too happy to allow ignorant, dark little bastards to piss in the punch bowl. If enough nations can find ways (and be helped to find ways) to make more money and food and to interact and deal with more and more foreign customers/suppliers, then anyone threatening to rock the boat will be slapped down by the locals wherever they are found. I hope for and will "lobby" for this alternative, but I have a hard time imagining that it will really happen.
After all, it takes time, thought, sacrifice of comfort and long-term attention span to make such a thing possible. It is just so much easier to allow the States to police the planet with spies and bugs and armed goons and restrictive laws. And humans are a lazy, lazy species....
posted by Author | 6:25 PM
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