Outsourcing Jobs

Not long ago Americans got concerned because "doze Japs" were taking over the production of VCR's. Oh no! Oh darn! So many jobs going to the Japanese making VCR's (etc.) and getting those manufacturing jobs (and income from sales).

But who (besides India) makes the most movies played in the VCR's?

Um, well, America. Hm!

The people in the vinyl record industry freaked out over cassettes, and later CD's reared their ugly ... well, kinda pretty, actually ... heads. Thousands of record manufacturing employees and cassette-dubbing employees were without jobs ... except that the CD industry exploded and people working in the CD manufacturing/distribution industry quickly outnumbered vinyl/cassette makers/distributors by almost double!
Every time economic paradigms shift, the changes "look" bad at first. Oh boo hoo, all those carburetor makers and technicians went out of work when electronic ignition came along ... and electronic ignition techs are more abundant (and earn) more.

"We" don't like illegal (or legal, for that matter) immigrants coming over and taking our ($10 a day and go sleep in an arroyo or an over-crowded motel room after a 12 hour day in the sun doing HARD damn work) jobs. They do jobs we not only don't WANT to do, but wouldn't do it for 4 times the pay they accept. And the money saved by their "employers/slave masters" gets spent on ... CD's, and engine work, and movies, and the people who make the content of those CD's and movies, and who get those wonderful things to them ... like musicians, truck drivers, etc.

NONE of this is to say that Mr. Bush is "right." I was tempted to vote Democrat just to tip up the floor and roll Mr. Bush out ... but then I recalled my vote doesn't mean a damn thing and I don't play. But sending "tech support" jobs to India is not necessarily a bad thing if it means the job gets done as well and/or cheaper ... and creates a "void" that is filled with something better. Even if it takes a while for the better to be recognized.

I learned about how industrial "format" shifts work from a prize-winning economist named Paul Pilzer back in the late 80's and early 90's. Didn't think much of it until recently.

In my work I spend a lot of time listening to satellite radio, and among my primary channels are NPR and Fox News (what a combination!) I particularly like "Your World with Neil Cavuto" on Fox. This last week some of his guests were yammering about outsourcing jobs and Mr. Cavuto said in a casual voice, something to the effect of, 'We all know that movement in the job sector is always replaced by something new.' Hm! Nice to hear my opinion of Pilzer's opinion confirmed by someone who is supposed to know more about it than I claim to.

On NPR this last week a guy named Mark Coleman talked about a book he has out recently titled "Playback" (plus some epi-title like "Music, Machines and Money"). He shows the history of the "music INDUSTRY" with the advent of sound recordings, and shows how the industry has shifted dramatically as formats change, and where formats are going. He predicts the soon demise of pre-recorded CD's (but not CD-R's for personal backup and playback options). I've been forecasting some big changes in the entertainment industry for a few years now, and it was slightly startling to get corroboration ... my opinions are based on analysis of observed trends and not on scholarly studies. I don't "research", per se. I just watch a lot of indicators, some of which don't seem to relate at first, and I formulate theories about how and why the different factors relate, and what effects might result from them.

Bottom line: third-worlders snap up the chump-jobs and American workers get bummed about losing those same jobs ... then invent their own jobs or shift over to newer, ultimately higher-tech jobs.

Bottom line 2: before too much longer people won't be buying their infotainment in tangible formats like newspapers, CD's or even cinema tickets. For economic and ecological reasons (which are ultimately the same) we will be getting our music, news and movies (etc.) via wireless broadband. There are still narrow gage railroads in operation as tourist novelties, old-style dining car diners, etc. There will always be newspapers and vinyl LP albums and other "dinosaurs" around as novelties and hobbies for anachronistas. But in the mainstream, deforesting the planet and slurping down petroleum reserves to make books and DVD's will diminish to almost nothing as people "recycle electrons" for their news and entertainment jollies.

These are good things, too. Less depletion of tangible resources ... and more demand (and reward) for artists of all varieties. East Indians taking tech support calls is the IT equivalent of Mexicans mowing and blowing leaves. It makes no sense to pine for the days when home-owners had to pay "white" people (Americans, by analogy) 3 times as much, and the person they paid changed all the time as these same "whites" wised up and found other, better work. If working tech support (or yard work) is so wonderful, why aren't any of us putting out resumes and yammering to join those ranks?

I guess I'm on this because I want people to cheer up and smell the mocha-latte. Things are getting better in the large picture, even if some mice are being forced to look for new sources of cheese. (Not meant derogatorily ... just recalling a recent book "Who Moved My Cheese?" about making changes to match the work environment ... or starving to death).